OPEC Revises Up Non-OPEC Production Estimates For 2018

U.S. shale suppliers are forcing OPEC to revise upward its estimates for supplies originating outside the bloc’s member nations, according to the latest data released by the bloc.

Non-OPEC production will increase by 1.15 million barrels per day in 2018, up from a previous estimate of a 990,000-bpd jump for the year in last month’s report.

American oil exports, which gained market share over the course of 2016 and 2017, have been offsetting cuts made by OPEC and its band of allies over the past year.

“Higher oil prices are bringing more supply to the market, particularly in North America and specifically tight oil, including unconventional NGLs,” OPEC said in its monthly report. “Shale producers in the US have managed to lower their breakeven costs by 30-50 per cent in 2015-17, by improving technology and efficiency and as oil field service providers offered deep discounts on rigs and crews to retain their share of a shrinking market.”

Oil prices this month have not been so high in three years. At the end of 2017 and early 2018, the sentiment turned decisively bullish amid geopolitical concerns—mostly from the Middle East, signs of a tighter oil market, and healthy global economic growth that boosts oil demand growth.

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Still, American crude oil output is set to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day from the nation’s largest shale producing areas over the next year, according to new forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Rises in U.S. oil production will account for 80 percent of the global oil production increase by 2025, and this production increase will match an increase in demand. 2025 will mark the peak of oil demand, if the International Energy Agency’s projections are accurate. From then on, demand declines consistently, pressured by fuel efficiency and alternatives to internal combustion engines.

By Zainab Calcuttawala for Oilprice.com

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