IEA Report Sees Global Oil Supply Fall

According to the June IEA report, the global oil supply overall was down 0.8 mb/d for last month, due to outages in both OPEC and non-OPEC nations.

Output was at 95.4 mb/d, which is 590 kb/d down from last year. Next year should see a modest rebound of 0.2 mb/d for Non-OPEC supply growth, after seeing a drop of 0.9 mb/d this year.

OPEC crude dropped to 32.61 mb/d due largely to the activity of the militants in the Niger River Delta, although Iran is becoming OPEC’s “fastest source of supply growth this year, with an anticipated gain of 700 kb/d.”

The wildfires in Canada also contributed to a lack of supply this year. The agency is also keeping a close eye on Venezuela, where the declining national situation could affect that nation’s oil industry.

The IEA notes that growth in the first quarter of 2016 has been revised to 1.6 mb/d, while growth for the year is expected to be 1.3 mb/d. The international agency predicts that this will see global demand hit 97.4 mb/d.

The IEA expects the majority of gains to come from non-OECD nations. The IEA anticipates that non-OPEC nations will see a drop in production of 0.9 mb/d, which includes a drop in shale output from the U.S.

Related: Despite Robust Demand Is Oil Set To Fall Once Again?

The report also states that in the second quarter of this year, outages are having a negative effect on refinery runs, and that throughput is flat. The agency notes that at the halfway point of the year, the market appears to be balancing.

However, the IEA warns that there are volumes of shut-in product that could return to the market and undercut the strong demand in oil that characterized the first half of the year.

By Lincoln Brown for Oilprice.com

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