A new report says Iran is preparing to export Fath-360 and Ababil close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) to Russia and has started training Russian personnel to use the former.
There have been several reports since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 claiming Iran was gearing up to sell or had already supplied Russia with ballistic missiles. None of the reports was confirmed by U.S. or Ukrainian officials, and Iran continues to deny having armed or planning to arm Russia.
Analysts who spoke to RFE/RL were unsure about the latest report but added that if confirmed it would provide a boon for Russia's war efforts and have both benefits and pitfalls for Iran.
Russia's use of North Korean ballistic missiles briefly allayed concerns Moscow would turn to Iran to restock its inventory.
"However, the extensive demands of the battlefield may have strained North Korea's supply capabilities," Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RFE/RL.
She said Moscow might be seeking Iranian ballistic missiles as a strategy to "lessen its dependence on North Korea," which would allow Russia to play off Pyongyang and Tehran against each other, "potentially maximizing its strategic benefits."
A visit to Tehran on August 6 by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, who previously served as the country's defense minister, fueled suspicions that Moscow was seeking to acquire Iranian missiles.
From Drones To Missiles
Since the early months of the Ukraine war, Russia was suspected of using Iranian-made Shahed and Mohajer-6 drones, many of which have been found after being shot down in Ukrainian cities and battlefields. Iran initially denied arming Russia before relenting and admitting that it had supplied "a limited number of drones" to Moscow before the war.
Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Tehran continues to deny that its drones are being used by Russia against Ukraine. That has not stopped the United States and EU from imposing sanctions on Iran for helping Moscow.
Grajewski said Iranian drones "had a comparative advantage over the Russian ones in terms of technology, manufacturing, and operational use." But with ballistic missiles, it "is about quantity, not quality."
Aside from the reputational boost that would come from supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, Iran would also gain significant knowledge about how Fath-360 and Ababil perform in battle.
In addition, Grejewski said, the "operational use and any Russian modifications would potentially help Iran with some areas where its missiles tend to be lacking."
Earlier reports suggested Russia was eyeing Iran's Fateh-110 and Zolfaqar short-range ballistic missiles. But exporting those to Russia would put Iran in violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) range and payload thresholds, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
However, Fath-360 and Ababil are under the 300 km and 500 kg thresholds established by the MTCR.
"Nonetheless, that does not mean [CRBMs] should be ignored, as they help Russia conserve their own domestically produced long-range strike assets and are further signs of a deepening Russo-Iranian relationship," Taleblu argued.
Taking Risks To Grow Partnership
Not contravening the MTCR would still draw the ire of Western nations if Iran ends up supplying Russia with ballistic missiles.
UN restrictions on Iran's imports and exports of missiles expired in October 2023, but the United States and the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) as well as the wider EU extended ballistic-missile sanctions against Iran.
"The E3 was resolute in their warnings to Iran," Grajewski said. "The supply of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would complicate any solution with the Iranian nuclear program."
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Talks on restoring the nuclear deal have stalled and the agreement is set to expire in October 2025, so Iran may be looking to bolster its relations with Russia in case the prospects for reviving the deal disappear.
Iran took part in Russia's annual army exhibition, which was held in Moscow on August 12-14, and showcased some of its latest military technology including the Mohajer-10 drone -- the updated version of the Mohajer-6 that Russia has used in Ukraine.
But Grajewski argued that more notable was the presence in Moscow of Brigadier General Ali Shadmani, a deputy commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters that is responsible for the operational command and control of Iran's armed forces.
Taleblu said Iran had received a combination of things for arming Russia with drones, including cash and gold, and maintained that "these vectors of cooperation are likely set to deepen."
"Iran is intent on moving up from the status of junior partner to Russia, which is one reason why the arms cooperation between the two over Ukraine is unlikely to be compartmentalized," he added.
By RFE/RL
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