Over the weekend, the biggest gathering of think tanks in Central Europe, the Globsec forum, took place in Prague. The theme was "Taming The Storm," a reference to the myriad challenges facing Europe -- from Russia's war in Ukraine and the malign influence of China to a potential new American president less invested in the continent and the disruptive effects of artificial intelligence (AI).
Despite the ominous theme, this year's Globsec was actually rather uneventful, especially when compared to last year. Back then, French President Emmanuel Macron stole the show by telling the largely Central European crowd they were right all along about Vladimir Putin and that Paris had got its assessment of the Russian president terribly wrong.
There were also frenetic (and ultimately failed) efforts to get the Serbian and Kosovar leaders to dial down the tension in the region, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised (and subsequently delivered) on a 6 billion euro ($6.6 billion) growth plan for the Western Balkans for the next three years.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of this year's Globsec was that it didn't take place in Bratislava, the forum's home for the previous 18 years. Shortly after coming to power in the fall of 2023, the left-wing populist Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico withdrew both political backing and economic support for the forum, even though he was a big proponent of the event during his previous stints in office.
That appears to be a continuation of Bratislava's concerted effort to target various institutions and follows its taking-over of the governance of Slovak state TV in the spring and, more recently, sacking the heads of prominent cultural institutions around the country.
Prague provided a welcome refuge for the forum this time around -- and the Czech capital will be the host again in 2025 After that, who knows? It looks likely the Czech Republic will have its own populist, Andrej Babis, back in power next fall.
Even though Globsec is under the auspices of the pro-Western Czech President Petr Pavel, I heard from more than a few people at the three-day gathering that Warsaw is being considered as an alternative host.
Von Der Leyen Comes Out Swinging...
With no Macron this time, nor the German chancellor or the Ukrainian president, center stage was taken by the newly re-elected von der Leyen. In an apparent swipe at the governments of Hungary and Slovakia, which both have questioned the usefulness of more financial and military support for Ukraine, she noted that "today, some politicians inside our union, and even in this part of Europe, are muddying the waters of our conversation about Ukraine. They blame the war not on the invader but on the invaded; not on Putin's lust for power but on Ukraine's thirst for freedom. So, I want to ask them: Would you ever blame Hungarians for the Soviet invasion of 1956? Would you ever blame Czechs for the Soviet repression of 1968? The answer to these questions is very clear: The Kremlin's behavior was illegal and atrocious back then. And the Kremlin's behavior is illegal and atrocious today."
Von der Leyen also saved some strong salvos for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who, in July, embarked on a much-publicized "peace mission" to Moscow and Beijing.
"We Europeans have many different histories. We speak many different languages, but in no language is peace synonymous with surrender," she said. "In no language is sovereignty synonymous with occupation. So, those who argue to stop support for Ukraine do not argue for peace. They argue for appeasement and the subjugation of Ukraine."
…And Budapest Hits Back
While most participants at Globsec tended to echo von der Leyen's view, it was interesting to hear a different take from a representative of the Hungarian government. In one of the tensest sessions over the weekend, Orban's political director, Balasz Orban (no relation), hammered home Budapest's point of view.
It would be good, Balasz Orban said, for Europe to stop "endless wars and bring peace." He underlined that this was a view shared around the world and that it was only what he called the "transatlantic liberal elite" who are in opposition to the idea.
He then pointed out that Russia has gained territories, that the war has caused millions of Ukrainian refugees to flee, that hundreds of thousands have died on both sides, that the Ukrainian economy is in ruins and bankrolled by the West. He then bluntly asked how long this could continue.
It was only when he said Ukraine would soon become "Europe's problem," as even the Democrats in the United States would realize that they couldn't finance the war for too much longer, that one of the other panelists, U.S. diplomat Kurt Volker, retorted that that would still be better than Europe having Russia "as your problem."
A Cold Winter Ahead
Amid all the bullish talk at the conference of Ukraine's urgent needs and the West needing to step up, the mood heading into the fall felt decidedly sober.
Sure, many did sense a smidgen of optimism with Ukraine's already weeks-long incursion into Russia's Kursk region. Experts agreed Kyiv could benefit both from the buffer zone it offers and use the hundreds of Russian prisoners of war as a useful bargaining chip in potential future negotiations.
But as the Prague forum took place, there was news of the Russian Army edging closer to the key Ukrainian hub of Pokrovsk, with the path to Ukraine's fourth-largest city Dnipropetrovsk suddenly opening up. The EU's ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, noted that, in the summer, military support from the bloc is at the same level as it was in spring 2022 -- down to a trickle -- and added that Ukrainians "cannot shoot commitments, but need real ammunition." She also warned about the possibility of a "cold and dark winter," with Russia hampering around 70 percent of Ukraine's prewar energy production.
Another telling admittance was from former Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren, who bluntly spelled out that the Ukraine Compact, a security framework signed by all 32 NATO allies at the Washington, D.C., summit in July, was "a bit of window dressing," although she hastened to add that bilateral security deals between Kyiv and various Western capitals were still meaningful. While several European diplomats have confessed this to me privately, it was still a sobering assessment to hear it spoken out loud.
It went on in much the same fashion. In one session, Anders Carp, the deputy CEO of Saab, the Swedish aerospace and defense company, gave perhaps the most chilling comment of the weekend when he noted that European nations must continue to give special training to Ukrainian troops as "many of the Ukrainian soldiers we have trained are now dead."
Outspoken Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur asked whether "we want Ukraine to fight or do we want Ukraine to win," adding that the West is again failing to give the country what it needs.
There are some promising signs. Last week, NATO ambassadors met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and EU defense ministers met among themselves in Brussels, to discuss the issue of lifting more Western restrictions on Ukraine striking inside Russia.
Despite the meetings, according to EU diplomatic sources speaking on background, there is no real movement on this yet, and Germany, Italy, the United States, and others, remain wary. Speaking about the restrictions, Pevkur said it was "like asking a boxer to fight with one hand behind the back."
Money Issues And Political Will
Ultimately, it all comes down to money and political will in the West. The Estonian defense minister was again blunt, noting that, apart from the issue of cash, the arms industry needed to plan, as there are stringent environmental assessments required for expansion and it often takes more than 18 months to navigate the bureaucracy.
In Russia, he pointed out, there are no restrictions. "If Putin decides that a sausage factory should produce weapons the next day, it's decided," he said.
With that in mind, it was illuminating to listen to Angus Lapsley, who is in charge of defense planning at NATO. While the military alliance now proudly states that a record number of 23 out of 32 allies have reached the target of spending 2 percent or more of national gross domestic product (GDP), Lapsley noted that spending needs to increase by another third, or, in some cases, double. The Cold War average for NATO was 3.5 percent of GDP, he added.
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He highlighted numerous capacity gaps that the alliance needed to fill: ammunition, spare parts, air defense, long-range strike capabilities. He also said that even apparently straightforward measures such as improved integrated communications and information systems were necessary, as the militaries of various countries were sometimes unable to even send e-mails to one another.
A Feisty Balkan Clash
One surprise was when Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said Ukraine will be a member of the EU by 2030. It wasn't clear if his comment was made in jest, as he was speaking at a rather turbulent session. Sharing the stage with Montenegrin President Jakov Mijatovic, Vucic scoffed at Mijatovic's stated goal that Podgorica will be a member of the bloc by 2028.
Vucic dismissed the idea that a Western Balkan state will join the EU this decade, saying only Kyiv has a chance. The two Balkan leaders then had a testy exchange over whether the Montenegrin language was in fact Serbian, and Vucic slammed Podgorica for recognizing Kosovo's independence in 2008.
Vucic continued in similar combative fashion, dismissing the notion that Belgrade was a Kremlin Trojan horse trying to enter the EU and spelling out that he hadn't been in touch with Russian President Vladimir Putin in over two years (although though people in his entourage had).
The Serbian president said that "the interests of the EU are from time to time different to our interests," adding that the main impediment to Belgrade's continued EU integration was its relations with Kosovo, rather than with Russia.
The EU-sponsored dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, which has been going on since 2011, has not seen much progress over the last few years. Judging from the mood in Prague this weekend, he said, it was hard to believe that will change.
Looking Ahead
The EU's Foreign Affairs Council last week was moved from Budapest to Brussels, following outrage over Orban's trip to Moscow in July. But the bloc's General Affairs Council, which brings together member states' Europe ministers, will take place in the Hungarian capital on September 3.
Some countries, notably the Baltic trio and Finland, have already said they won't send ministers to the event, so we'll see if others follow suit.
By RFE/RL
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