Sober Look is a no-hype financial blog that relies on data analysis and primary sources. Posts are intended to be succinct, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include U.S. and global economic developments and financial markets. We often cover asset management, energy/commodities markets, derivatives, regulation, and policy - with a particular focus on capital markets and financial risk.
With the release of Canadian banks’ second-quarter results, investors are beginning to measure the impact of the oil price collapse on the domestic financial industry.…
Introduction How fast can the Canadian economy grow? What can Canadians expect now that commodity prices have plunged and the country is running a trade…
Futures-implied probability of a 2015 rate hike in the United States remains below 40%. Some market participants have all but dismissed this possibility as they…
Canada is no stranger in dealing with oil price collapses. The sharp fall in the price of crude in 2014 is not unprecedented. Over the…
Devaluation is now the preferred tool to reinvigorate slowing economy. On a traded-weighted basis, the US dollar is at its highest level in over a…
The Governor of the Bank of Canada (BOC), Stephen Poloz, was not kidding when he warned that the first quarter of 2015 would be “atrocious.”…
In 2014 the Saudis could no longer accept the loss of crude oil market share as the North American production levels shot up sharply over…
Coal prices in the US are collapsing. The September Appalachian coal futures contract gave up over 2% on Friday as the industry faces unprecedented challenges.Source:…
The biggest risk to US economic growth remains the possibility of an extended US dollar rally. The Fed rate hike expectations have been pushed out…