Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Plunge to 11-Month Low

Russian seaborne crude oil exports have dropped to their lowest level since August 2023, as Russia’s refinery runs are rising and Moscow is working to comply with its OPEC+ production quota, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.

The four-week average crude shipments from Russia’s export terminals dropped in the four weeks to July 21 to the lowest level since August of 2023, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.

The estimated four-week average of the shipments in the week to July 21 was down by about 710,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the recent peak in Russian crude exports in April 2024.

Russia has pledged to comply with the cuts and to compensate for previous overproduction while its domestic refining levels are nearing the highest in six months in July amid the peak demand season.

Since the April peak, the four-week average export volumes have continuously dropped in the past weeks, Bloomberg’s tanker-tracking data showed.

Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that there is no discord between Russia and OPEC+ over Moscow’s recent poor compliance with the group’s production cuts.

The OPEC Secretariat said last week that it had received compensation plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia for their overproduced volumes for January to June 2024.

The cumulative overproduction in these six months was about 1.184 million barrels per day (bpd) for Iraq, 620,000 bpd for Kazakhstan, and 480,000 bpd for Russia, OPEC said.

Russia’s plan envisages Moscow mostly compensating for its overproduction in the months of March to September 2025.

Russia’s Energy Ministry said last Wednesday that the country remains fully committed to the OPEC+ agreement.

Russia exceeded production volumes in June, but output has declined in each month since April, per estimates from independent sources approved by the agreement, the ministry said.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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