Russian seaborne crude oil exports dropped in the four weeks to July 14 to the lowest levels since January, pointing to a likely improving compliance with the OPEC+ deal, vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.
The four-week average level of Russia's crude shipments fell to around 3.11 million barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to July 14, down by around 180,000 bpd from the four-week average from the week prior, according to the data reported by Bloomberg's Julian Lee.
The latest four-week average crude shipments were the lowest observed seaborne exports out of Russia since January this year.
In the past weeks, the four-week average export volumes have continuously dropped, Bloomberg's tanker-tracking data showed.
Lower shipments at the end of June were mostly attributed to maintenance works at Russia's ports.
Maintenance works at the busiest oil ports dragged down weekly crude oil shipments to the lowest level in over three months as the ports of Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Kozmino in the Far East halted vessel departures for four days each in the week to June 23.
Three weeks later, it does not look like any of the ports is carrying out works at present. So the likely explanation could be Russia improving compliance with the OPEC+ cuts and raising domestic refining rates, according to Bloomberg's Lee.
Over the past two weeks, most of the decline in Russian crude shipments came from the Western ports on the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Exports from the Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports on the Baltic have slumped by 30% compared to a recent high in April, while exports from the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea have almost halved from their recent high.
After a drop in shipments between the April high and early June, Russia's seaborne crude exports started rising again in June, and the volumes recovered about one-third of their recent decline.
This came even as Russia's Energy Ministry pledged earlier in June that Russia would reach its oil production quota in June after exceeding its target output under the OPEC+ deal in May.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics, he is Oilprice.com's Head of Operations More