Russia Claims to Be Complying With Its OPEC+ Oil Production Obligations

Russia was in compliance with its OPEC+ oil production cut obligations as of the end of August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Interfax.

“We should have been complying. At least, data to that effect were available at the end of the month,” Novak said. During the previous month, Russia exceeded its OPEC+ quota by 67,000 bpd, the publication noted in its report, with the government attributing the excess output “to one-off problems with the supply schedule, while the levels in August and September should make amends for this.”

During the first half of the year, Russia overproduced by around half a million barrels daily which it needs to compensate for by the end of the year. The country has previously said it would comply with its obligations to OPEC+ via a combination of adjustments to oil production and exports.

OPEC+ agreed to reduce the supply of crude oil last year and earlier this year extended these into 2025, although it allowed for the possibility that some of the cuts could be reversed over the final quarter of 2024, depending on market conditions. This has been taken to mean high enough oil prices to justify a production increase.

As the start of the final quarter draws nearer, speculation has increased, with Reuters citing unnamed OPEC insiders as saying some members would indeed begin reversing the output cuts from next month. This has pressured oil prices, however, which means unfavorable market conditions for a production cut reversal.

Per that Reuters report, OPEC was hopeful that the Libyan production outages, to the tune of some 700,000 barrels daily, and the possibility of a U.S. interest rate cut would compensate for the return of around 180,000 bpd to the market starting in October. The next meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC+ meets on October 2.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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