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OPEC+ to Reevaluate Production Cuts as Brent Crude Prices Falter

OPEC maintained steady oil production in July, averaging 26.99 million barrels per day—a slight decrease of 60,000 bpd from June levels, according to a Bloomberg survey. 

Venezuela and Iran accounted for most of the 60,000 bpd dip, with both countries experiencing decreased demand from China. OPEC and its allies held a monitoring meeting earlier this week as the group hopes to gradually unwind its production cuts starting in Q4. OPEC has cautioned, however, that any changes to its planned supply increases will depend on market conditions.

Despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, crude futures have declined, leaving Brent crude below $80 a barrel. This drop poses challenges for OPEC+ nations, with Saudi Arabia in particular facing a four-quarter growth slump, forcing it to slash investments in key economic projects. In July, Saudi Arabia maintained its output at 9 million bpd, largely in line with its OPEC+ quota. Algeria and Kuwait also stayed within their targets.

Iraq and the UAE, however, continued to exceed their production limits. Iraq increased its output by 30,000 bpd to 4.28 million bpd, Bloomberg's survey showed. Russia and Kazakhstan, along with Iraq, have pledged additional cuts to compensate for their chronic overproduction throughout the duration of the production cut agreement.

Venezuela and Iran, exempt from the current OPEC+ agreement, saw the largest declines in July. Venezuela's output dropped by 60,000 bpd to 830,000 bpd, and Iran's production fell by 50,000 bpd to 3.26 million bpd. Both countries rely heavily on sales to China, which is expected to reduce imports amid slowing economic growth.

Bloomberg's analysis is based on ship-tracking data, information from officials, and estimates from consultants, including FGE, Kpler Ltd., and Rapidan Energy Group.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on August 02 2024 said:
    Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will hardly impact oil prices as long as they don't disrupt oil supplies from the Gulf region through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The weakening oil prices aren't reflecting the solid market fundamentals and the robust global oil demand because of huge pressure on them orchestrated by the United States in cahoots with the IEA and oil traders to keep oil prices depressed in a presidential elections' year and also the market playing a waiting game to see how OPEC+ responds to weakening prices.

    The majority of OPEC+ members need a Brent crude ranging from $90-$100 a barrel to balance their budgets with Saudi Arabia needing a price of $98 according to the IMF. This drop poses challenges for OPEC+ nations with Saudi Arabia in particular being forced to slash investments in key economic projects and increase its borrowing from the international money markets.

    OPEC+ is monitoring the market and won't hesitate a second either to delay its plans to phase out the current cuts by October or even make new cuts if prices continue to fall.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert
  • Chris Chiasson on August 02 2024 said:
    This is setting up for a massive deficit in production in the near future, lack of new discoveries and declining reserves/production are going to send a price shock in the energy markets. Seems so predictable after that covid energy implosion ripped the appetite from investment out of the market. We read about these daily speedbumps all too often, the market has these knee jerk reactions but the underlying pressure remains. Oil pricing will not remain at this level for very long. The long life production reserves in Canadian Oil and the low valuation of these small cap companies compared to their peers is setting up for a bright future of profitability. Only the price shock that is coming will spawn new production and by then it will be too late to bring on board quickly. OPEC will continue to fill the gap strategically to keep global expansion at bay as best they can with emerging markets of consumption.
  • Mike Lewicki on August 02 2024 said:
    did you interview them?

    OPEC

Leave a comment

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