EIA Raises 2024 Forecast For U.S. Crude Oil Demand

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for crude oil demand in the United States, according to the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook released today—although its price outlook for this year and next has been revised down. 

The EIA now sees U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption averaging 20.5 million barrels per day in 2024—that’s up from the agency’s forecast in July of 20.4 million bpd. 

Globally, the EIA left its total world consumption of crude oil and liquid fuels unchanged at 102.9 million bpd for 2024, revising its 2025 global fuels consumption slightly downward to 104.5 million bpd from 104.7 million bpd. These figures represent growth of 1.1 million bpd this year, and 1.6 million bpd next year. 

For Brent pricing, the EIA reduced its forecast for this year and next, lowering its projections by $2 per barrel to $84 per barrel for the full year 2024. For next year, the EIA also revised its forecast down by $2 per barrel to an average of $86 for the full year.

While prices have been recently on a downward trend and the full-year 2024 guidance has been reduced, the EIA continues to expect crude oil prices to rise in the second half of 2024. The Brent spot price ended July at $81 per barrel, the EIA said, but averaged $85 per barrel for the month. The EIA sees Brent returning to between $85 per barrel and $90 per barrel by the end of the year. 

The EIA sees these prices rising as we head into the latter part of the year on the back of global crude oil inventories decreasing by 800,000 bpd in the second half.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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