Brent Passes $80 Amid Middle East Tensions and Positive U.S. Data

Heading for the fourth consecutive days of gains, oil prices continued to trade up on Monday, with the U.S. crude benchmark gaining well over 2% buoyed by consistent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, and despite OPEC’s lowering of its global demand growth forecast earlier in the day. 

At 11:57 a.m. ET on Monday, WTI was trading up 2.26% at $78.58 per barrel, while Brent crude was trading up 1.81% at $81.10. 

Oil prices are also being driven upwards by new U.S. economic data, which has worked to dampen fears of a recession. 

To start out the week, Bank of America attempted to quash fears of recession in the U.S., saying that it no longer believes this will happen, suggesting that the White House and the Federal Reserve had managed a “soft landing” on inflation. 

Speaking to CBS’ Face the Nation on Sunday, BoA CEO Brian Moynihan said the bank “does not have any recession predicted anymore”, noting that “last year, this time, it was a recession”. 

“The consumer has slowed down. They have money in their accounts, but they’re depleting a little bit,” Moynihan told CBS. “They’re employed, they’re earning money, but if you look at — they’ve really slowed down. So the Fed is in a position they have to be careful that they don’t slow down too much.”

Tensions in the Middle East also continue to shake markets, with traders concerned of a widening conflict that could disrupt key supplies. Markets are holding their breath over an anticipated attack on Israel by Iran, while Iranian proxies continue to intensify strikes on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq. 

Earlier on Monday, OPEC released its revised global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 to 1.78 million barrels per day, down from 1.85 million bpd projected previously. OPEC now expects global oil demand growth for this year to average 104.32 million bpd. For 2025, OPEC has also lowered its projections to 2.11 million bpd, down from 2.25 million bpd in its previous report. 

“This slight revision reflects actual data received for the first quarter of 2024 and, in some cases, the second quarter, as well as reduced expectations for China’s oil demand growth in 2024,” read an OPEC statement on Monday. 

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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