Armenia and Azerbaijan have succeeded in removing one major obstacle, but large potholes remain on the road to a durable peace deal between the longtime enemies.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry confirmed in early August that Azerbaijani officials had agreed to drop a provision from a draft peace agreement that would give Baku a land corridor connecting the Nakhchivan exclave to Azerbaijan proper. The matter of extraterritorial rights for Azerbaijan concerning what is known as the Zangezur corridor had been a sticking point in ongoing peace negotiations. The news that Baku was dropping the Zangezur provision was first reported by RFE/RL. Azerbaijani officials have stated the issue could potentially be revived at a later date, when conditions are more favorable for mutual agreement.
The announcement indicates renewed movement in the peace process, which in recent months appeared stalled. It also was evidently the outcome of direct talks between representatives of the two states. Previously, peace negotiations had been brokered by outside powers, including Russia, the United States, France and Germany.
Under a plan developed in 2020, after Azerbaijan had retaken a large portion of Nagorno Karabakh, Russian forces would have gained a major role in providing security and smooth operations for the Zangezur corridor. That plan would also have granted Armenia a transit corridor to Russia via Azerbaijani territory. With the issue of Zangezur and other “communications” routes now dropped from the draft peace agreement, Russia stands to lose a lever that it could have otherwise used to influence future developments in the South Caucasus.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have both expressed interest of late in concluding a peace agreement rapidly. In July, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev indicated the two countries had agreed on roughly 90 percent of the draft peace pact’s language.
The most significant remaining obstacle is an Azerbaijani demand that Yerevan amend the Armenian constitution to clearly acknowledge Karabakh is not part of Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government has appeared open to the idea of changing constitutional language, but, given the domestic political sensitivities surrounding the issue, has tread lightly.
A significant segment of the Armenian public is opposed to the idea of recognizing the permanent loss of Karabakh. At the very least, many Armenians believe any peace deal should guarantee the right of return for Armenians who were forced to flee Karabakh in late 2023 amid Azerbaijan’s full takeover of the territory.
“The Armenian government must clearly state that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict remains unresolved as long as the people of Nagorno Karabakh remain displaced and are not allowed to return to their homes,” a former Armenian foreign minister, Vartan Oskanian, wrote in a commentary published August 8 by the Armenian outlet Civilnet.
Azerbaijani officials seem to recognize Pashinyan’s difficult domestic political situation. Comments made by one insider in Baku hinted that the decision to drop the Zanzegur provision from the draft peace agreement may have been a negotiating trade-off, an inducement to encourage Pashinyan’s government to press ahead with making a constitutional change.
“We don’t want to complicate even further the task of finalizing the peace agreement,” Elcin Amirbayov, Aliyev’s senior envoy for special assignments who has been closely involved in the negotiations, told RFE/RL.
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