The global financial landscape is undergoing a subtle yet significant transformation. At the heart of this change is the concept of "de-dollarization" – the gradual reduction of the US dollar's dominance in international trade and finance. While this process has been simmering for years, it has gained momentum recently, fueled by China's increasing use of its own currency, the yuan (or renminbi), for cross-border transactions.
This shift away from the dollar, while gradual, has the potential to reshape the global economic order. A less dollar-centric world could mean a redistribution of power, influence, and economic leverage. It could also lead to increased volatility and uncertainty in financial markets. As China continues to assert its economic might, the rise of the yuan represents a significant challenge to the established order.
In this article, we will delve into the factors driving China's de-dollarization efforts, the impact on the global currency landscape, and the potential implications for the future of international trade and finance. We will explore the rise of the yuan, the strategic considerations behind China's actions, and the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
The De-Dollarization of China’s Cross-Border Transactions
Historically, China, like many other nations, has relied heavily on the US dollar for its international trade and financial transactions. However, this dependence has been waning in recent years as China actively promotes the use of its own currency.
In 2010, less than 1% of China's cross-border payments were settled in yuan, compared to a staggering 83% in US dollars. Fast forward to March 2023, and a pivotal moment occurred: the yuan overtook the dollar for the first time. By March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in yuan, marking a remarkable doubling of its share in just five years.
This dramatic shift can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, there is a growing willingness among foreign businesses to trade in yuan, as they seek to diversify their currency holdings and reduce their exposure to the dollar. Secondly, several countries, including Brazil and Argentina, have begun to accept yuan settlements for trade, further bolstering its international use.
The Chinese government and its central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), have played a crucial role in driving this trend. They have implemented policies to facilitate the use of the yuan in cross-border trade and investment, including establishing offshore yuan clearing centers and expanding the network of bilateral currency swap agreements.
The Rise and Retreat of the Yuan
The rise of the yuan in international trade has been marked by several significant milestones. In 2016, the yuan was included in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, a reserve asset used by member countries. This move recognized the yuan's growing importance in the global economy and paved the way for its wider adoption.
However, the path toward a globalized yuan has not been without setbacks. In 2015-2016, China faced a speculative attack on its currency, triggered by concerns about the country's economic slowdown and capital outflows. This forced the PBOC to intervene to stabilize the yuan, highlighting the challenges of managing a currency with increasing global exposure.
Shifting Priorities and Capital Controls
The 2016 crisis prompted a reassessment of China's de-dollarization strategy. While the initial ambition was to achieve full-scale de-dollarization and expand the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure investment project, the focus shifted towards a more cautious approach.
China began prioritizing the development of yuan-denominated trade settlement systems, allowing businesses to bypass the dollar in their transactions. The government also tightened capital controls to prevent excessive outflows and maintain financial stability. These measures, while effective in protecting the economy, also limited the yuan's global reach.
The Weaponization of the U.S. Dollar
The US dollar's dominance in international trade has long been a source of both power and vulnerability for the United States. It has allowed the US to impose economic sanctions on other countries by restricting their access to the global dollar-based financial system.
This "weaponization" of the dollar has raised concerns among many countries, particularly those that are at odds with US foreign policy. As a result, there has been a growing interest in finding alternatives to the dollar, with China's yuan emerging as a potential contender.
Most Popular Currencies in Foreign Exchange (FX) Transactions
Despite the yuan's rise, the US dollar remains the undisputed king of the foreign exchange market. According to the Bank for International Settlements, in 2022, it accounted for 88.5% of all FX transactions, followed by the euro (30.5%) and the Japanese yen (16.7%). Interestingly, the dollar's share has actually grown by 1.5% since 2010, while the euro and yen have seen their shares decline.
The renminbi, while still a relatively small player with a 7% share, has been the fastest-growing currency in the FX market over the past decade. This suggests that it is gradually gaining acceptance as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially in trade with China and its partners.
De-Dollarization or Yuanization? The Future of Global Trade
While the complete de-dollarization of the global economy seems unlikely in the near future, the rise of the yuan is undeniably a significant trend. As China continues to expand its economic influence, the yuan is likely to play an increasingly important role in international trade and finance.
The Chinese government is actively promoting the use of the yuan in cross-border transactions, and it is steadily building the infrastructure needed to support this goal. This includes establishing yuan clearing banks in major financial centers, expanding the network of currency swap agreements, and developing new financial products denominated in yuan.
However, the path to yuanization is not without challenges. China's strict capital controls, while necessary for maintaining financial stability, also limit the yuan's international appeal. Additionally, the yuan's value is still tightly managed by the PBOC, which raises concerns about its long-term stability and predictability.
Despite these challenges, the yuan's rise is a trend that cannot be ignored. It represents a fundamental shift in the global financial landscape, one that could have far-reaching implications for the future of trade, investment, and geopolitical power.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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President Putin started the de-dollarization ball rolling when he decided in 2014 to de-dollarize the Russian economy after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia in the aftermath of the annexation of the Crimea. Since then 90% of trade between Russia and China which hit $240 bn in 2023 was conducted by their own national currencies.
Meanwhile, Chinese renminbi (RMB) has been growing in popularity in payments both domestically and globally. It overtook the dollar in China's cross-border payments and receipts in 2023. As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD.
Moreover, the petro-yuan is also gaining fast against the petrodollar in global oil trade with the petrodollar losing more than 20% of its share from 80% to 60% in the last 4 years.
By 2030 the yuan is projected to be the main reserve currency in the world with the petro-yuan emerging as the primary oil currency.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert