Why Russia Is Threatening To Invade Ukraine

As Russian troops line up on the Ukrainian border, Putin is warning the UK against any eastward NATO expansion that the Kremlin would view as encroaching on its “territory” in Ukraine. An estimated 175,000 Russian troops have been mobilized along the border, and the standoff is intensifying by the day. 

For Putin, this move is about winning concessions from NATO. The art of maintaining the pressure on the unresolved conflict is key to winning concessions. The point is not necessary to invade Ukraine again and annex more territory; however, if concessions are not achieved, it would be relatively easy for Russia to do so. 

Russia’s most likely point of incursion would be the strategic port city of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. This port city is controlled by Ukraine’s wealthiest oligarch, steel magnate Rinat Akhmetov, who has become the recent focus of accusations of plotting a coup with the Russians. Akhmetov has sided, in his empire’s history, with anyone who will benefit his business. That could mean pro-Russian, pro-Ukrainian or pro-Western forces. This is not an ideological move. At this point, however, Akhmetov’s steel plants and shipping needs in and out of Mariupol are being hindered by Russian control over who gets through and who doesn’t–a lot of red tape and arbitrary seizures and inspections. The Russians have the upper hand, and whoever has the upper hand is best for business. For that reason, the coup-plotting allegations seem likely. The oligarch is in a tight spot, and while Russia could take Mariupol easily without his assistance, controlling it once they take it will be phenomenally smoother with him on their side. 

Oligarchic opportunism aside, Russia is unlikely to get certification to start pumping as through the NordStream 2 pipeline from Germany if it makes any aggressive move on Ukraine. Germany could simply use a red tape trick to delay the certification for months, as well. Earlier this week, the U.S. claimed that Germany agreed to halt NordStream altogether if Putin invaded Ukraine, but German officials later denied that. 

As it stands, Russia is likely to push this much further. Putin will not back down. Either there will be Nord Stream and NATO promises of no eastward expansion, or there will be an invasion of Ukraine, which is not equipped to fight off the Russians on its own. When the Ukrainian foreign minister says that Russia could invade “in the blink of an eye”, he is not exaggerating. US officials predict that invasion could happen as early as  January. The delays to Nord Stream are already having a negative effect on European gas prices, surging this week as Germany indicated it wouldn’t give certification in “its current state”.  An invasion would send them through the roof.