What Will It Take for Oil Prices to Rally Back Above $71.02?

Weekly Recap and Forecast: Light Crude Oil Futures

Light Crude Oil futures came under significant selling pressure this week, breaching key support levels and intensifying bearish sentiment. After breaking through the $71.02-$73.44 zone, prices dipped below $69.50, marking a critical technical breakdown. This decline leaves the market vulnerable, with $63.21 now appearing as the next significant downside target on the weekly chart.

OPEC+ Delays Production Hike

OPEC+ added to market uncertainty by delaying its planned production increase of 180,000 barrels per day (bpd), initially scheduled for October. The decision to delay output comes amid concerns over fragile demand conditions, particularly with weakening consumption in major markets like China. While the delay provided brief support to prices, it failed to halt the overall bearish momentum. The market remains focused on demand challenges rather than supply constraints, leaving crude prices under pressure. OPEC+ faces a difficult balancing act as it assesses market conditions against its production goals.

Demand Weakness from China

China’s economic troubles continue to be a major headwind for oil prices. Recent data from China’s manufacturing sector, which fell to a six-month low, alongside broader economic struggles in its property and export markets, have further dampened the outlook for oil demand from the world’s largest importer. While China’s oil imports briefly picked up in August, the overall picture remains one of demand weakness. This has added to concerns that the global market could face an oversupply issue if demand doesn’t recover soon.

U.S. Demand Slows Amid Seasonal Factors

In the U.S., oil demand has weakened as the summer driving season draws to a close. Additionally, the start of the fall refinery maintenance period in both the U.S. and Europe has reduced crude consumption. This seasonal slowdown in demand coincides with a larger concern over the U.S. economy and oil consumption, contributing to the bearish outlook for prices. Despite a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories last week—down by 7.431 million barrels—this failed to provide lasting support for prices. The inventory draw offered only temporary relief, and the market quickly refocused on the broader issue of declining demand.

Bearish Market Sentiment and Outlook

Overall, the outlook for Light Crude Oil futures remains bearish. With prices trading below critical weekly support levels and global demand showing no signs of significant recovery, the market is poised for further downside. The failure to hold above $69.50 suggests that a test of $66.66 is likely in the near term, with the potential for a move toward $63.21 if the bearish trend continues.

Key resistance levels at $71.02 and $73.44 are expected to limit any short-term rallies, while the broader technical picture indicates that prices are vulnerable to further declines. The delay in OPEC+ production hikes and the inventory draw, while supportive in the short term, is not enough to offset the weak demand from China and the U.S.

Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures

Trend Indicator Analysis

The main trend is down. It turned down this week when $69.50 failed as support. The trend will change to up on a more through $81.94. As of Thursday’s close, the market is trading lower for the week, putting it in a position to continue its four-week losing streak.

The long-term range is $89.44 to $63.21. The market is currently trading on the bearish side of its 50% level at $76.32.

The intermediate-term range is $63.21 to $83.66. Its retracement zone at $71.02 to $73.43 is resistance.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week-ending September 13 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $71.02.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $71.02 will signal the presence of strong buyers. If this creates enough near-term momentum then we could see a surge into the 50% level at $73.43.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $71.02 will indicate the presence of sellers. If bearish traders continue to defend this area, we could see a near-term break to $63.21. Whether the market accelerates to the downside or stair-steps lower, will be determined by selling volume and volatility.

Market Forecast: Bearish Outlook Prevails

Without a significant recovery in demand or an unexpected supply disruption, crude prices are likely to remain under pressure. The near-term outlook is bearish, with traders preparing for continued volatility. A lack of improvement in demand, particularly from China, could lead to further declines. The market is expected to stay range-bound with a downward bias unless there's a material shift in fundamentals. Light Crude Oil futures currently face the risk of continued price weakness.