Washington Reacts To Russia's Kursk Counteroffensive

Several developments have taken place this week on the Ukraine-Russia war front that threatens to cross a rather significant “red line” in what has been a rather slow and steady crossing of red lines since Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in March 2022. 

The wider development is that the Biden Administration appears to be gearing up to remove restrictions on what weapons Ukraine can use in attacks on Russian territory. Specifically, the administration may allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to target Russia–a move Putin on Thursday said would be tantamount to war with NATO.

Washington is possibly reacting to what it may view as increasing Russian weakness on the battlefield after the lack of direct response to Ukraine’s brazen incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where it remains, holding territory. Rather than launching an immediate counteroffensive in Kursk, Russia chose to intensify its campaign of airstrikes and its push in Donbas as it seeks to sever a key element of Ukraine’s military supply chain.  

The second development is that Russia has finally launched a counteroffensive in Kursk, the Russian territory that Ukraine launched an incursion into weeks ago, without a decisive response from Moscow. Ukrainian officials have also noted the build-up of Russian forces on the Ukraine-Belarus border, flanking Kursk.

Zelensky insists the Russian counteroffensive is unfolding in line with his strategy and claimed the Belarus border troop buildup was under control. The Russians are advancing towards Ukraine in the Kursk region, and Moscow says it has retaken control over 10 settlements. The advance appears to be fairly slow and in areas that Ukraine was not attempting to hold. Ukrainian media have also reported that Russian forces fear a Ukrainian attack on another region–Bryansk–and are deploying towards there, as well. In the meantime, Ukraine launched a drone attack on Moscow, killing one person, damaging residential properties, and grounding flights temporarily. Again, an attack such as this is intended strictly for making it look like Putin cannot even protect the capital. While a small attack that means nothing militarily, it could have a bigger public opinion impact coming amid the invasion of Kursk. 

Zelensky needed the Kursk invasion, and the timing was not accidental: Public opinion had been on the downswing, and as bold as the Kursk incursion was, one of the objectives was PR. After all, it’s been dragging on for well over two years, and Kyiv is aware that its civilian population is getting conflict fatigue. Kursk helps, amid a controversial cabinet shuffle in Kyiv that garnered significant criticism from the opposition.