The End Of Libya's Civil War Is In Sight

As of Thursday, Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) was celebrating in the streets after claiming to have taken full control of Tripoli from General Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA). The celebration comes after a string of territorial losses by Haftar at the hand of the GNA and its Turkish allies. While Haftar’s allies (Russia, UAE, Egypt, among others) largely sidelined themselves.

The last remaining thing to capture for the GNA was the capital airport, which fell to their hands Thursday, thus--in the minds of the GNA--ending a siege of Tripoli that has lasted for over a year.  On Friday, they further their gains, pushing the LNA out of the town of Tarhouna, with the next targets being Sirte and an airbase in central Libya. 

Turkey is now playing the kind benefactor in this game, with Erdogan appearing for a public statement alongside GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Ankara, saying those who have caused bloodshed would be judged by history and that the end the crisis can only be achieved politically, through the United Nations (which, incidentally, backed the GNA government way back when, though cringes at its militias).

Indeed, a lot is at stake here for Turkey, which has hedged its bets on the GNA winning in order to keep alive a new maritime boundary deal Erdogan struck with Sarraj that takes territory away from what Greece thought was its EEZ. Conveniently, around the same time as the GNA is celebrating in the streets, Turkey is releasing its written plan for 24 exploration licenses given to its state-run company, 7 of which encroach on Greek EEZ territory. 

The only real question here is who is willing to upset this victory for Turkey? And if none of Haftar’s allies step up to the plate (aside from a smattering of Russian warplanes that arrived a short while ago), what happens next?

At the very least, if it’s not a partition, it will be more civil war. Haftar ally, the UAE, is fine with a partition that would give Haftar (and by default, the UAE) control over the Libyan east and south--where all the oil is. But signs have already been surfacing that Haftar is losing power in the East, in Benghazi, where certain forces are willing to negotiate with the GNA (they want to see the oil start flowing again, and want their share). If Haftar loses his grip in the east, political negotiations are more likely--but we’re not there quite yet. 

Oil Markets Update

Oil traders may be in a holding pattern, waiting around for clarity on OPEC output cuts going forward, but clarity is less likely to be forthcoming when cheating on the numbers skews the picture. 

OPEC and allies led by Russia (otherwise known as OPEC+) have managed to reach some sort of agreement with Iraq--the details are not yet available. As a result, the OPEC meeting to discuss the possible extension of the cuts will be held on Saturday. Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to keep the current high rate of cuts for at least another month, but only if all members complied fully. This never happens. And it’s Iraq, again, where the problem lies. 

So, we move on to OPEC’s larger issue, which is US shale, which has already proven itself as a competent swing producer. If OPEC is successful in its production cuts and prices rebound (which will likely not only require production cuts, but also improved demand), US shale will rebound in full force, increasing production accordingly. This cycle of OPEC cuts followed by US production snapping back could go on into infinity.