Saudi Arabia Expected to Cut Its Oil Prices to Asia for October

• Saudi Aramco is expected to cut the OSP of its crude oil for Asia in October.
• The cut is likely due to weaker refining margins in China and the wider Asian region.
• The decision could also be influenced by the Dubai benchmark price and OPEC+'s hints of easing production cuts.

Worsening refining margins in China and the wider Asian region and weaker Dubai benchmark prices could make the world’s top crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, reduce the price of its crude loading for Asia in October, a Reuters survey of refining industry sources showed on Monday.

Saudi Aramco, the world’s top crude oil exporter, is expected to cut the official selling price (OSP) of all its crude grades for Asia in October, according to the survey of five refining sources. Three of these Reuters sources expect the flagship Saudi crude grade, Arab Light, to be priced $0.50 to $0.70 per barrel lower than the September prices. A cut of $0.70 would make Arab Light cost Asian refiners $2.00 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average.

The Oman/Dubai average is the benchmark on which Middle Eastern crude exports to Asia are priced.

The expected drop in Arab Light prices and the prices of the heavier grades could track the weaker Dubai prices in August, according to the refiners polled by Reuters.

However, other refiners expected unchanged or little-changed Saudi crude prices for Asia for October in view of some strength in the Dubai prices in the last week of the trading window of August.

Saudi Arabia typically announces its OSPs for the following month around the fifth of each month and does not comment on the pricing.

Apart from the trend in the Dubai benchmark, the Saudi OSPs for next month could be influenced by weak refining margins in Asia, especially in China, according to the refiners in the Reuters survey.

Generally, refiners expect small changes to the Saudi crude prices for Asia, but they are all expected to be lower compared to the September prices.

Last month, Saudi Aramco raised the price of its light crude for Asian clients for the first time in three months.

Global supply from Saudi Arabia and the Middle East for October could be ample, considering that OPEC+ is dropping hints that it could begin easing part of the production cuts that month.  

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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