Russia Is Trying To Replicate The Annexation Of Crimea

Let the second annexation begin … but it won’t go down like Crimea. 

In a rehashing of the events that led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russian media are now reporting that officials in Kherson, in Ukraine’s south, are gearing up to petition the Kremlin for formal recognition as part of Russia. 

Kherson is a key city along the “land bridge” Russia hopes to form from Crimea to the Donbass region as it attempts to occupy and eventually usurp a large chunk of Ukraine. In late April, the Russians gained the upper hand here, replacing Ukrainian officials with pro-Russian officials. They even changed the currency to the ruble. This is now a military administration, with pro-Russian Ukrainian civilians in the mix. This is Russia’s attempt to prove that Kherson (like Crimea) desires to be part of the Russian Federation. But it’s easy to hold a successful referendum when half of the population has fled or been forced into Russia. Russian media is also rife with comments from “collaborators” and pro-Russian figures stating that Moscow may simply annex Kherson without bothering with a sham referendum. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War

Some analysts believe that seeing a referendum held in Kherson (or an outright annexation) would be enough of a victory for Putin to end Moscow’s “special operation”. We would caution against this view, not the least because Ukraine will not likely allow it to happen that easily. A referendum in Kherson, under Russian military control, would not be legitimate, nor would it complete the land bridge from Crimea to Donbas. It would remain a conflict, possibly not even “frozen”. 

Mariupol, another important port city on the land bridge path for Russia, is now destroyed, yet the Russians do not have full control here. The Pentagon puts Russian troop numbers at about 2,000, with many of them having headed to the Donbas. The beginning (Kherson) and the end (Luhansk) must first be secured before the middle of the land bridge is fully conquered. 

Russia is going to get its frozen conflict, but once (and if) Europe manages to embargo Russian oil and–more importantly–replace Russian gas and all the infrastructure that requires–Russia will have lost its hold over Europe and will still be stuck funding annexed territories that will be expensive to rebuild and maintain. 

The war can have no definitive end–only a transition. And it’s a war that is largely playing out in the energy sector, with the West’s ultimate goal now to weaken Russia. It will not destroy Russia, and it’s unclear if it will even destroy Putin’s power base if it goes on for too long and if the military losses continue to mount with no visible victory (outside of propaganda). What it will do is shift the balance of power further towards China. A weakened Russia is also a potential open door for China. As we said, there is no real victory here. In a highly globalized world, there are no clear victories.