Russia Is No Longer Pursuing Victory In Ukraine

The transformation of Russian war propaganda indicates that this is no longer about winning in Ukraine, which is–it would seem–no longer a viable goal. The Russians aren’t seeing any real victories on the ground, even as they barrage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The newly emerging war propaganda has been tweaked rather significantly to make this about Russia itself, and the entire structure of the country. The general Russian population is largely fine with this because they seek to avoid politics and geopolitics altogether, seeking refuge in their own carefully constructed realities. 

One of the new forms of propaganda relates to… house-cleaning. Cleaning house, in this case, means getting rid of anyone who could rock the boat. It started with a major purge of the energy sector. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we’ve seen more than a handful of oligarchs die under mysterious circumstances. At least 8 Russian oligarchs of a potentially anti-war disposition died in mysterious circumstances between February and mid-September this year. 

Now things will play out beyond the energy sector, wherever 'traitors' may be able to cause trouble for a restructuring of the country and its wartime economy. Thus, the war is not about Ukraine, it’s a springboard for a purge in Russia. Putin himself has talked of “purification”, and everyone’s buying it. 

Two days ago, we saw signs that the “purification” may extend to Sweden, where a Chechen blogger has gone missing and is feared dead. Tumso Abdurakhamanov, a prominent Chechen dissident speaking out about a key Putin henchman, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, has reportedly been killed, according to a Telegram channel and confirmed by Chechen diaspora figures. While not confirmed by Swedish police, sources have said the blogger was shot dead and his brother had been placed under police protection. 

We expect to see more of these killings, disappearances, and mysterious deaths as Moscow’s new war propaganda continues to gain momentum. Dissidents anywhere in the world will not be safe. And this “purification” of the country of 'traitors' is just part of a new story being told by the Kremlin that distracts the general population from the war in Ukraine, and Russia’s failure to claim any real victories. 

And that lack of victory is now being highlighted rather boldly by Ukraine in a series of far-reaching drone attacks that demonstrate just how deeply Kyiv can strike into Russian territory. Ukraine struck airfields Russia was using to launch attacks on energy infrastructure and civilian targets. If the Kremlin wants to distract Russians from the war front in Ukraine, Kyiv is adopting a strategy to remind them rather bluntly. 

Ukraine, of course, understands this propaganda game very well and can play by a similar rule book. Kyiv has had its own “purification”, with some 19 attempted assassinations between February and mid-September of figures in Ukraine working with Moscow, including “local” figures Moscow installed in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory. Based on various records, it would appear that 9 successful assassinations of this nature were carried out in August alone.

With the new war propaganda, which no longer requires a Russian public that cares about victory in Ukraine, Putin’s latest message is a concession that this is going to be a long war.