Moscow is not escalating the war in a way that would change the rules (and there are rules). The rules are that Russia will not attack NATO and NATO will not attack Russia - it’s that simple. There has been no escalation in this sense. There has also been a lack of escalation within the rules of the game. Even when Ukraine targets Crimea, Russia does not retaliate in any meaningful way that would lead to an escalation. And now, Russia has cut natural gas flows to Europe via Nord Stream 1 - first under the guise of required maintenance that was supposed to last only three days, and then “indefinitely”, unless the West lifts sanctions that the Kremlin says are making it impossible to maintain pipelines. Now, Putin is threatening to cut the gas off completely for Europe, should the EU implement a proposed cap on Russian gas prices, as the G7 has done for Russian oil.
What else does Putin have to weaponize that is within the confines of a war that is not a “war” and has never been declared anything other than a “special operation” by the Kremlin? The EU is set to ban Russian seaborne exports, as well, by December 5th - the same date the G7 has vowed to have a price cap plan in place for Russian oil. Putin, in turn, has said no Russian oil would be sold to anyone complying with a price cap.
Presumably, the Kremlin has little additional economic leverage beyond this - and so far, outside of Ukraine - this has all…
Moscow is not escalating the war in a way that would change the rules (and there are rules). The rules are that Russia will not attack NATO and NATO will not attack Russia - it’s that simple. There has been no escalation in this sense. There has also been a lack of escalation within the rules of the game. Even when Ukraine targets Crimea, Russia does not retaliate in any meaningful way that would lead to an escalation. And now, Russia has cut natural gas flows to Europe via Nord Stream 1 - first under the guise of required maintenance that was supposed to last only three days, and then “indefinitely”, unless the West lifts sanctions that the Kremlin says are making it impossible to maintain pipelines. Now, Putin is threatening to cut the gas off completely for Europe, should the EU implement a proposed cap on Russian gas prices, as the G7 has done for Russian oil.
What else does Putin have to weaponize that is within the confines of a war that is not a “war” and has never been declared anything other than a “special operation” by the Kremlin? The EU is set to ban Russian seaborne exports, as well, by December 5th - the same date the G7 has vowed to have a price cap plan in place for Russian oil. Putin, in turn, has said no Russian oil would be sold to anyone complying with a price cap.
Presumably, the Kremlin has little additional economic leverage beyond this - and so far, outside of Ukraine - this has all been about the weaponization of energy resources.
Putin shows no intention of escalating this war in the traditional sense, so those in the West who insist on attempting to predict what will happen next from a strictly military/economic warfare standpoint find themselves butting their heads against immovable walls. Those who say he is not escalating are simply looking in the wrong place. Warfare is no longer a thing one has to declare, and it no longer requires sustained, escalating military conflict. Putin would only be willing to give up his last economic weapon, all the while refraining from deterrents, if he is truly backed into a corner, or if there is a longer - much different - form of warfare playing out. The longer-term game would be the age-old divide and conquer, with an insidious technological propaganda twist.
We may have seen a preview of this last weekend, in the Czech Republic, when mass protests saw 70,000 people descend on Prague’s Wenceslas Square to demonstrate against the government, spurred on by soaring energy prices and the highest costs of living they’ve experienced since the early 90s. Here we see extremist politics come full circle, following the adage that if you go too far to the left, or too far to the right, you come to the same point in the political circle. Western governments seem to have a difficult time coming to terms with the new form of warfare that is fought in the cybersphere - where everything will be decided. The battleground has changed, and the only force that appears to fully understand this is Russian.
Russia’s RT news network, for all of its conspiracy-theory propaganda disconnected from any reality and complete with Western correspondents, is just the polish on a massive assembly line of digital weaponry that is both dictating and predicting behavior across the Western world. Russia’s military equipment may no longer be top-notch, but its troll factories are the new nuclear weapons - and they are highly sophisticated.
The art of the troll factory is to… encourage a certain type of behavior by making people from various backgrounds feel empowered to respond more actively to thoughts that are already visibly (through social media) seminating in their minds. Everyone is a target: left, right, center, though the far-left and the far-right are the most easily manipulated. It is subtle, insidious, and highly effective.
The Russian troll factories and the way they operate have been fairly well-documented at this point, yet the West remains consistently several steps behind, responding to distracting provocations, unable to fight this new form of warfare, which lies outside the conventions of international law, which itself has trouble maintaining pace with the cyber world outside of hacking.
What happened in the Czech Republic is very likely part of this new brand of warfare, but it’s a tricky one for politicians to navigate, which is the intention, of course. The Czech prime minister will likely be seen to have misstepped in claiming Russian propaganda influence was behind the mass protests that saw so many disparate, rival groups descend on the capital city’s main square - some also in support of Putin, with anti-EU and anti-NATO sentiments. What is a prime minister to do, after all, when faced with the specter of simultaneously addressing genuine grievances of sky-high energy prices and Russian troll intervention? One is tangible, the other exists in the intangible cyber sphere. It’s ghost warfare, and it’s how Russia hopes to bring down Europe from the inside, with help from genuine issues that people can be easily led on.
Warfare like this leaves Europe with one choice: high-risk interventionism in the energy markets to avoid dangerous social unrest. The Czechs - even if Russia’s troll factories have played a role - are outraged over soaring costs of living. Who is to blame? Russia created the situation by invading Ukraine. Europe laid the foundation to make it easy for Putin to do what is now doing - ensuring that an energy crisis rips the bloc’s social fabric to shreds, and helping it along with an army of trolls and bots.
Now living in a post-transition, Western comfort zone, the Czechs aren’t willing to sacrifice any longer for Ukraine - even if it means bringing Russia closer to their doorstep. The French are even said to be furious that dozens of public swimming pools have been shut down to save energy. This is nothing compared to what is to come. The EU is readying for a crisis meeting today (Friday), and the choice will be between intervention and social unrest - a scenario predicted by Moscow long before it was conceded by Europe. The absolute only way to be unpredictable is to be independent, and that ship sailed long ago, leaving Europe desperately swimming behind it trying to catch up. Putin wants a European winter of discontent, and Europe hasn’t been paying attention. Now, it’s got a lot of catching up to do to avoid making Putin’s prophecy come true.
