Economists have been attempting to forecast the point of peak oil—the year when oil demand reaches its maximum level—since the 1970s. Despite increasing warnings regarding climate change, global demand has continued to rise over the last few years and could continue.
In this graphic, Visual Capitalist partnered with Range ETFs to explore the global oil demand and determine which region will demand the most in 2045.
Projecting Global Oil Demand
As per OPEC, Oil demand could be as much as 17% higher by 2045 than it was in 2022. These projections are in millions of oil barrels per day and broken down by oil product.
Oil’s importance in the global economy and its role as a fuel in many nations and industries worldwide contribute to the strength in demand. Additionally, the demand for jet fuel could grow by as much as 60% between 2022 and 2045, as currently, there is no carbon-neutral alternative to kerosene.
Who Will Be Using This Oil?
The forecasts also describe how much of this demand could flow to each region by 2045. Here is how it breaks down:
Despite significant investments in clean energy, large economies like those in North America, China, and India are forecast to have the most demand in 2045. This would be driven by each region’s need to use oil in transportation, industrial processes, and energy generation.
The Future of Oil
Oil’s continued importance as a fuel will likely keep demand growing over the next two decades.
Investors can take advantage of the growing potential oil demand by gaining exposure to various companies at the forefront of the offshore oil industry through the Range Global Offshore Oil Services Index ETF (OFOS).
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By Zerohedge.com
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1- Global oil demand is projected to continue rising in the next 100 years albeit at a slightly decelerating rate because of governmental legislations and a slightly deeper penetration of the global transport system by by EVs.
2- Oil is expected to continue driving the global economy well into the future. Oil and the global economy are inseparable. Destroy one you destroy the other and vice versa.
3- It is unthinkable that an alternative to oil as versatile and practicable as oil itself could be discovered or developed in the next hundred years.
4- A peak could only be reached if global oil reserves are totally depleted. But this is equally unthinkable since technology aided by AI could help raise the recovery factor (R/F) from fast-depleting oil wells and also help exploration and the discovery of new fields.
5- The last tree barrels produced will come from three regions: the Gulf region, Venezuela's Orinoco belt and Russia's Arctic who between them are sitting on a combined reserves exceeding 1.0 trillion barrels.
6- EVs will never be able to cause a steep decline in global oil demand because they will never ever prevail over ICEs. This is the assumption on which the IEA based its projection of peak oil demand by 2030. The assumption is flawed and therefore the projection is equally flawed.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert