Politics, Geopolitics, & Conflict
Libya’s exports remain blocked, and while there were some reports that some oil was getting out, it was largely for domestic use and some ships have been allowed to load from storage. The majority remains hijacked by a new push to take control by two rival governments (Benghazi and Tripoli). On Friday, the Tripoli government’s interior minister (Imad Trabelsi) let it be known that meetings had been held over the past 48 hours with “security forces” (read: various militias). That could easily lead to an armed run on the Central Bank, to forcibly remove Central Bank governor Al-Kabir, who appears to be shifting alliances from Tripoli PM Dbeibah to General Haftar in the east but who has since reportedly fled the country. The Tripoli interior minister denied there were any plans afoot to take the Central Bank by force. They are holding out now for the result of UN talks with representatives from each rival government, but we do not see a consensus being reached at this time. Last week, Libya’s total oil output was reported to have been halved, but as of the time of writing, it is unclear how much Libya is producing or exporting right now. The markets are playing a guessing game, and turning their focus back to China demand, OPEC cuts, and various diverse bank forecasts for oil prices this year and next. Early on Friday, Al-Kabir resurfaced after fleeing and claimed that Tripoli government’s attempt…
Politics, Geopolitics, & Conflict
Libya’s exports remain blocked, and while there were some reports that some oil was getting out, it was largely for domestic use and some ships have been allowed to load from storage. The majority remains hijacked by a new push to take control by two rival governments (Benghazi and Tripoli). On Friday, the Tripoli government’s interior minister (Imad Trabelsi) let it be known that meetings had been held over the past 48 hours with “security forces” (read: various militias). That could easily lead to an armed run on the Central Bank, to forcibly remove Central Bank governor Al-Kabir, who appears to be shifting alliances from Tripoli PM Dbeibah to General Haftar in the east but who has since reportedly fled the country. The Tripoli interior minister denied there were any plans afoot to take the Central Bank by force. They are holding out now for the result of UN talks with representatives from each rival government, but we do not see a consensus being reached at this time. Last week, Libya’s total oil output was reported to have been halved, but as of the time of writing, it is unclear how much Libya is producing or exporting right now. The markets are playing a guessing game, and turning their focus back to China demand, OPEC cuts, and various diverse bank forecasts for oil prices this year and next. Early on Friday, Al-Kabir resurfaced after fleeing and claimed that Tripoli government’s attempt to take the bank by force had failed and that “we’re assessing the situation right now — we might return very soon”, based on a phone interview with POLITICO. This is a complicated game in which rival courts are issueing rulings over the control of the Central Bank, and Al-Kabir seems to feel as if he has the upper hand right now; however, his return to the bank is not likely to be smooth, if it happens at this time.
On the Israel-Gaza front, peace talks are getting nowhere, with Hamas killing six hostages and now demanding more Palestinian prisoners being released in the deal. On the other side, Israel is targeting the West Bank, escalating the violence outside of Gaza, though on a smaller scale.
Discovery & Development
CNOOC Limited has announced the start of production at the Wushi 17-2 Oilfields Development Project in Beibu Gulf. The project, featuring a new wellhead platform and oil and gas processing terminal, will involve 43 development wells, including 28 production wells and 14 water-injection wells. Peak production is projected to reach around 9,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026. CNOOC holds an 80% stake in the project and serves as the operator.
Talos Energy has announced a significant oil and gas discovery at the Ewing Bank 953 well in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, with an estimated recoverable resource of 15-25 million barrels of oil equivalent. Drilling activities at this well revealed approximately 127 feet of net pay at around 19,000 feet TVD, with first production expected by mid-2026. Ewing Bank 953 will be tied back to the South Timbalier 311 Megalodon platform, partially owned by Talos.
Harbour Energy has commenced appraisal drilling at the Kan prospect in the Gulf of Mexico, a field estimated to hold 200-300 Mboe. This follows Harbour’s recent $11.2 billion acquisition of Wintershall Dea, increasing its stake in Kan from 30% to 70% and making it the operator.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Brazil’s 3R Petroleum has rebranded as Brava Energia following its merger with local player Enauta. The combined company is now one of the largest independent oil producers in Latin America, with assets both onshore and offshore. Brava Energia will start trading on the Sao Paulo exchange under the ticker BRAV3 on 9 September. The company has a diversified portfolio with robust low-risk reserves and plans to soon begin production at the Atlanta field in the Santos basin.
Sinochem is considering selling its 40% stake in the Wolfcamp shale oil joint venture with ExxonMobil, with a potential valuation exceeding $2 billion. Discussions are in the preliminary stages, and no deal is confirmed. Sinochem, which has been shifting focus away from oil and gas to new materials and life sciences, may also retain its stake or sell to other interested parties, including rival Asian national oil corporations. If completed, this sale would end Sinochem's involvement in the Permian.
