Libya's Oil Conflict Is Escalating Again

A line-up of external actors is preparing to escalate the military conflict in Libya, but none of them want to. It’s about securing positions and hoping for a real cease-fire deal that would lead to an end to the conflict. Egypt is ready to deploy troops to Libya to fight in support of General Haftar against the Turkish-backed GNA. Russian mercenaries--Moscow’s proxy in this war--are securing oil facilities for Haftar, along with a mix of other militias, including Sudan’s blood-curdling Janjaweed, who are always for hire. The Libyan National Oil Company is in a panic as it watches every single oil facility become militarized at the 11th hour of this conflict, risking irreparable damage if anything goes wrong. 

Now, the US is threatening sanctions on both Russia and Turkey for escalating the conflict in another move to simply buy time. U.S. lawmakers accuse Moscow of making a move on Libya’s oil, but this argument is a pedantic one. All external forces are trying to back what they believe will be the winning side to secure construction and oil contracts when the dust settles, while Turkey is trying to secure its Mediterranean future by backing the GNA. 

The point is to consolidate military positions for negotiating leverage, but throwing all these bands of militias together is a dangerously explosive setup. The thing to watch once you get past the headlining military news is the Central Bank audit, which officially started off Tuesday. This is the key to getting Libya’s oil flowing again. 

The Tripoli-based central bank has cut off eastern Libyan banks (from Haftar’s stronghold) from the bank clearing process, which means that eastern banks are cash-strapped. While Haftar is starving Libya of oil revenues, Tripoli is trying to starve Haftar of cash. In the process, both sides are threatening the collapse of oil production capacity and the collapse of the entire banking system. This is the key to ending the conflict, and the audit is the first step. 

Constantly attempting to keep tensions at a high point for additional leverage, Turkey’s seismic research vessel Barbaros is now heading towards Cyprus, set to explore an area south and southeast of the island. Turley plans to conduct seismic activity inside Blocks 2,3, and partly 13 of Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone. Again, it’s all part of Turkey’s play to secure its legacy in Mediterranean oil and gas, for which Libya is a necessity.