Iran’s Plan To Lure The U.S. Into War

As of April 15th, there were over 2 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally, with over 127,000 deaths, though the infection rate has been slowing as we witness a flattening of cases in Europe, while cases in Russia, Indonesia, India, and Japan continue to rise at a quicker pace. The consequence of the economic shutdown could be the loss of some $9 trillion through the end of 2021, with some analysts predicting another 18 months of shutdown, which would make that loss even higher. 

Iran’s Hardliners Win, and That Means War

Iran is being decimated by the novel coronavirus, though no one knows for sure how many cases there really are amid allegations of a government cover-up. Its economy is in big trouble due to sanctions and the oil price war, and it’s reached out to the IMF for a $5-billion Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). It’s worth noting, however, that the US is a dominant shareholder in the IMF and is opposing such funding for both Iran and China. 

Iran is now exporting 300,000 bpd of oil, down from 2.5 million bpd in the spring of 2018. Now, it’s IPO’ing Shasta, the Social Security Investment Company (SSIC), offering up a 10% stake (8 billion shares) on the Tehran Stock Exchange.

Throughout these consecutive crises, the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, has lost power to hardliners, which is perhaps the biggest misstep that the US has made in this game to date. Rouhani has already largely been sidelined, and the coronavirus pandemic will only further cement the power of the hardliners. That is especially true now that Rouhani has been thrown under the bus for misreporting the COVID-19 situation in Iran. While the government initially confirmed 76,000 cases, with 4,700 deaths as of Wednesday this week, the actual numbers as conceded by a parliamentary report are up to 8,500 deaths, with infections potentially reaching 760,000. 

If things between the United States and Iran were off-balance before COVID-19, they are exponentially more off-balance now. That will mean more targeting of US interests in Iraq, and as we have seen this week, more showdowns in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. 

The US policy of “maximum pressure” has backfired dangerously. Iran did not back down; rather, the hardliners assumed more power and are now convinced they can gain ground in terms of regional influence by provoking the United States in proxy venues. 

As the coronavirus continues its deadly march, Iran - with Rouhani sidelined - will not be distracted. Conflicts between Tehran and Washington are heating up now and will continue despite the pandemic.

The most recent preview was the incident in the Gulf this week when Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sent nearly a dozen naval vessels to make harassing approaches to six US Navy and Coast Guard ships, passing within 10 yards of a Coast Guard cutter while the US Navy was taking part in military exercises with Army Apache helicopters. And the previous day, unidentified armed men, believed to be IRGC, seized a Hong Kong-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman and then released it after leading it into Iranian waters. It’s sheer provocation, and it’s meant to elicit a response from Trump to keep the game going.