Could Turkey's Devastating Earthquake Unseat Erdogan?

Erdogan arrived on the Turkish political scene in the late 1990s in the aftermath of a devastating earthquake that brought to light the incompetence of a government that could not protect its people from natural disasters. In 2023, he may end up losing power for the same reason. 

With the death toll of the 7.5-magnitude earthquake that devastated Turkey on Monday already surpassing 17,600 and expected to rise exponentially, many are now looking to lay blame. For many, it is a government that allowed corruption to undermine strict new building codes developed after the 1999 earthquake that claimed the lives of 17,000 people. 

Recently, Erdogan called for early elections in Turkey, to be held a month earlier than originally planned, on May 14th. Now, he will emerge either as the hero or the villain. On the ground, PR stunts are in full force, with talk of rescue teams being pushed aside to make way for AKP-branded actions. Opposition aid trucks are being loaded and then re-flagged with the AKP colors to ensure Erdogan is at the front of the rescue mission during this most devastating time for Turkey’s citizens. 

Even Twitter was blocked for nine hours on Thursday as the AKP attempted to take control of the rescue mission and ensure that opposition forces were not caught on camera rescuing anyone from the rubble. 

This is all about desperate political capital for Erdogan, and his detractors hope–at the very least–this horrible tragedy will be his undoing. 

Rebuilding the earthquake-affected zone will be costly, and makes it impossible for Erdogan to implement his populist policies ahead of the elections. Inflation is above 57%, and while that is down from 80% in the third quarter of last year, it’s still a cost-of-living crisis that is now compounded massively by a devastating earthquake. Meanwhile, it is paramount that Erdogan maintains the stability of the lira. Erdogan called for early elections precisely to maintain control of the economic narrative during a vote. Now, he’s lost control of that narrative over a devastating earthquake.

The narrative is now being taken over by talk of insufficiently designed buildings that could not withstand the tremors. Engineers and other high-level experts are now coming out of the woodwork to address the AKP government’s shortcomings, all of which could blowback on Erdogan in May. 

It wasn’t only privately built apartment buildings and houses that collapsed … public buildings were demolished, too, including schools, administrative buildings, hospitals, and even the headquarters of Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) in Hatay.

Sinan Turkkan, civil engineer and president of Turkey’s Earthquake Retrofit Association, told Al Jazeera: “It is completely unacceptable for a public building, a power plant, or an airport to collapse in an earthquake. There are very strict regulations in place to prevent this. The scenes we are witnessing today in the southeast are proof of the state’s shortcomings in implementing its own rules even in constructions over which it has complete control.”

A Turkish dissident possibly best expressed the growing national sentiment, addressing Erdogan: “When this national mourning ends, the period of national liberation will begin. Let’s see if there will be a servant of Allah who will come to your [Erdogan’s] aid in this political wreckage that you will be under.”