Two conflicts (Gaza, Ukraine) have escalated significantly this week, with Ukraine launching a ground incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in a surprise move that Moscow was unable to thwart, and with Iran indicating on Tuesday that a Gaza ceasefire deal would “delay” retaliation against Israel.
In combination with this, there are indications that Libya’s period of calm before the rival government storm is dissipating, with the Libyan National Army (LNA) strongman General Khalifa Haftar invited to talks in Egypt to the extreme distress of the rival Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli.
Simultaneously, Russia continues with its Europe-flanking movements in Africa, and even though they were routed by Tuareg rebels in Mali, with help from Ukrainian intelligence, Russia’s Wagner mercenaries will regroup.
For now, without a direct retaliation by Iran for the assassination of the Hamas leader on Iranian soil, the conflict continues to simmer in proxy venues, most notably Syria, where pro-Iranian forces are targeting US-backed Kurdish forces in the northeast, where the oil is.
The Israel-Gaza conflict is what has been driving oil prices most prominently this week, while the ongoing instability in Libya has largely been written into prices for years already, as has the Russia-Ukraine conflict - as long as it remains within Russia-Ukraine borders (noting that it has already seeped into Africa).
Russia-Ukraine…
Two conflicts (Gaza, Ukraine) have escalated significantly this week, with Ukraine launching a ground incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in a surprise move that Moscow was unable to thwart, and with Iran indicating on Tuesday that a Gaza ceasefire deal would “delay” retaliation against Israel.
In combination with this, there are indications that Libya’s period of calm before the rival government storm is dissipating, with the Libyan National Army (LNA) strongman General Khalifa Haftar invited to talks in Egypt to the extreme distress of the rival Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli.
Simultaneously, Russia continues with its Europe-flanking movements in Africa, and even though they were routed by Tuareg rebels in Mali, with help from Ukrainian intelligence, Russia’s Wagner mercenaries will regroup.
For now, without a direct retaliation by Iran for the assassination of the Hamas leader on Iranian soil, the conflict continues to simmer in proxy venues, most notably Syria, where pro-Iranian forces are targeting US-backed Kurdish forces in the northeast, where the oil is.
The Israel-Gaza conflict is what has been driving oil prices most prominently this week, while the ongoing instability in Libya has largely been written into prices for years already, as has the Russia-Ukraine conflict - as long as it remains within Russia-Ukraine borders (noting that it has already seeped into Africa).
Russia-Ukraine War Update: Ukraine now claims to control 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory and 74 settlements, following the launch of a ground campaign two weeks ago. Chechen leader Kadyrov’s special forces are under scrutiny by Moscow right now, with pro-war bloggers (who generally follow a Kremlin-approved script) indicating that these forces are to blame for Ukraine’s ground incursion into the Kursk region. Suspicions have been raised that Kadyrov’s forces were deserting and collaborating with the Ukrainian military. On Tuesday, Kyiv indicated that it was planning another push in the region, while Russia continues to evacuate residents - some of them to occupied Ukraine. On Wednesday, the Russian evacuation total from the Kursk region was set to hit 200,000 people. On Thursday, Kyiv said it had set up a command center in Russia’s Kursk region, and Moscow deployed more troops to Belgorod. It remains unclear how Ukraine will maintain its control over this territory, but the fact that this incursion happened in the first place crosses a red line with Moscow in terms of NATO.
Israel-Gaza Conflict Update: As we noted above, Tehran indicated earlier in the week that the only thing that could delay an inevitable Iranian retaliation against Israel is a Gaza ceasefire deal (talks got underway without Hamas on Thursday) and the plan is to use the fear of retaliation as leverage. That also means that all leverage is gone as soon as it is used, so a “delay” could be more likely. Despite the continued Israeli assault on Gaza and broadening global outrage over crimes against humanity, Washington on Tuesday approved the sale of a $20-billion weapons package for Israel. The Israeli far-right continues to stir up internal tensions with the release this week of its plan to settle Gaza within a year.
Wider Middle East Update: Keep your eye on developments in Jordan, which is being closely watched with respect to an anticipated Iranian attack on Israel. In April, Jordan was responsible for intercepting Iranian missiles bound for Israel, leaving the pro-Palestinian voices in Jordan frustrated. While Jordan does not wish to serve in the defense of Israel, it does refuse to allow its airspace to be used in a conflict. It’s the Switzerland of the Middle East. Jordan (like Egypt) signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994. And while Jordan is ruled by the original tribes that were there when the Kingdom was established in 1921, it has a significant Palestinian population, yet has managed a high level of stability for decades, very carefully balancing its pro-Western stance with its Middle East alliances.
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