A Critical Election Looms for Venezuela

As of the time of writing, the most likely outcome of Sunday elections in Venezuela is impossible to predict. All indications are that the opposition is gaining momentum in a dangerous threat to Maduro, who has ruled since 2013. If Maduro wins again, and it is determined to not have been free and fair, Venezuelans are concerned things could turn into a bloodbath. Maduro himself has suggested a bloodbath was in store, which he will blame on the opposition. It will start with protests if he wins in a sham vote, and this will be all that Maduro needs to unleash security forces in a violent purge of the streets. Either way, this is the first time in decades that the opposition stands a real chance of winning in Venezuela, keeping in mind that Maduro controls the electoral authority. 

Opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia is a proxy stand-in for Maria Corina Machado, an increasingly popular figure whom Maduro had banned from running. This Sunday will be different in terms of voting because the opposition appears to have gained quite a bit of momentum by taking in those disillusioned with Maduro’s rule. It’s winning converts, and more and more people appear to be expressing a desire for change. If the polling stations are anything to go by, the opposition candidate is heading towards victory. One polling company is predicting he will win by a landslide whether voter turnout is low or high. Other polling companies that are considered credible are offering similar predictions. Polling stations are maintaining their opposition victory predictions despite the fact that Maduro has already stripped them of their overseas voters, who would definitely vote for Machado’s proxy. 

The polling stations seem to think an opposition victory is fairly clear, but what happens after that is dangerously uncertain, at best. Whether an opposition vote would be recognized by the election authorities is another question entirely, and that’s where things stand to get bloody.