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The Time Has Come For Rate Cuts… and Higher Oil Prices

In the wake of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments suggesting the end of the aggressive rate hikes that dominated 2023, oil prices have seen a notable boost. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today hinted at a potential rate cut in the near future, a move that would ease borrowing costs and likely stimulate economic activity. This has led to a surge in market optimism, with both WTI and Brent crude prices climbing significantly.

WTI crude is currently trading at $74.48 per barrel, marking a 2.01% increase, while Brent crude is up 1.74%, reaching $78.56 per barrel. These price movements reflect a broader market sentiment that sees potential monetary easing as a catalyst for increased demand, particularly as the U.S. economy shows signs of resilience.

Powell's remarks were optimistic, pointing to the unwelcomed further cooling in the job market, and adding that inflation was within the Fed’s 2% target.

 "The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased," Powell said today. "The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

The prospect of a rate cut is seen as a positive development for the oil market, as lower interest rates typically encourage spending and investment, which in turn boosts demand for energy. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar, often a consequence of rate cuts, makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, further supporting prices.

However, the market's response is tempered by ongoing concerns about global oil demand. Despite today's gains, oil prices have faced downward pressure throughout the week due to fears of an economic slowdown in China and ongoing uncertainty in Europe. These factors have contributed to a mixed outlook for oil, with some analysts cautioning that the recent price rally may be short-lived if demand concerns persist.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • George Doolittle on August 23 2024 said:
    First off the amount of capital still flooding into natural gas "driven" products continues to be sustained at *ENORMOUS* thus keeping natural gas prices in the USA anyways pretty much pegged at *"FREE!"* always a good price for you energy input. 2nd however there being a strong connection between natural gas extraction and oil drilling as certainly both require an enormous amount of energy but also not dissimilar type capital expense at all there still remains concurrent with an natural gas drilling and production boom so too/also an oil drilling and production boom both onshore and offshore by way of specific example Guyana North Coast of South America far larger still Brazil with the latter now apparently "migrating" to off the Coast of Southwest Africa. Taken together and with so much energy refining on an industrial scale being located upon US Gulf Coast there is a literal *FLOOD* of oil still entering into upon that Region to be refined and turned into usable product namely tho not limited to gasoline, diesel fuel and liquid propane gas. This product continues to simply put *FLOOD* the US consumer market for fuel along the USA Eastern Seaboard the most valuable fuel market in the World because the price at retail is so crazy low there ... *AND HEADING LOWER NOT HIGHER* at least until trace amounts of an increase in heating oil demand surfaces. In the meantime battery electric vehicles now arriving in the size of full sized pickup trucks and flat out obviating the need for the entire ICE platform let alone demand for either gasoline or diesel fuel again along the Eastern Seaboard the most valuable market in the World ALSO/TOO for the ICE platform internal combustion engine paired with said robust mechanical transmission which now must include "hybrid drive systems" for that now which again barely consume any gasoline, *ZERO* liquid propane gas (for now) and deminimus *NEW* demand for diesel fuel. If a new oil refinery were built starting in Richmond Virginia or Philadelphia Pennsylvania both already properly siting for doing so this outlook could change but until then everything internal combustion will be powered by a turbine engine some becoming quite small now I imagine and not standardized ICE platform going on near 100 Years now plus associated power train. Long story short prices for not just oil but for refined product as well remain *CRAZY* bearish with ethanol and methanol now competing as well. Plus fueling stations such as *"Buccee's"* have become absolutely enormous and thus far more efficient at dispensing these vast amounts of the fuel resource in the USA. Plus charging infrastructure continues to expand. So far no demand *COLLAPSE* for gasoline and diesel fuel in the USA...the most valuable energy and transportation market ever in human History and only more so now today...setting up for one tho just based upon natural gas product alone which in some markets has been trading negative all Year 2024. Long every US based utility strong buy right now today certainly. #canada_on_strike will be a material demand hit on energy as well. Plus food too. Massive material demand hit actually.

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