As the rivalry over global oil demand projections continues to intensify, supergiant Exxon Mobil on Monday chimed in to forecast that crude demand will continue to be over 100 million barrels per day through 2050, contradicting other forecasts that come in much lower, Reuters reported.
The forecast from Exxon, which is planning to see output of 4.3 million barrels of oil and gas per day this year, is at odds with other forecasts, both among its peers and among analysts.
Exxon has also estimated that in 2050, 67% of the global energy mix will be fossil fuels, down from 68% last year.
Exxon's full-year 2024 projected output represents 30% more than peer Chevron's, according to Reuters, and the company's demand projection is 25% greater than BP's released in July, predicting that global oil demand will peak next year at around 102 million bpd, while wind and solar capacity will continue along their fast growth trajectory.
BP, which is planning to slash production to around 2 million bpd by 2030, sees oil consumption gradually declining over the second half of the outlook to around 75 million bpd in 2050. The drop is, however, much more pronounced in Net Zero, with demand falling to just 25 million-30 million bpd by 2050.
Late last week, Morgan Stanley revised its oil price forecast downward to reflect expectations of more OPEC and non-OPEC supply coupled with indications of weakening demand. Morgan Stanley lowered its global oil demand growth estimate from 1.2 million bpd to 1.1 million bpd for this year, saying it anticipates a tight Q3, with stabilization in Q4 and potentially a surplus by 2025. The firm also cut its Brent price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel, down from $85, and now expects prices to gradually decline to $75 per barrel by the end of 2025, slightly lower than their previous estimate of $76.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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Comments
How could it be otherwise with a world population projected to hit 9.7 billion by 2050 and a global economy projected to grow to $245 trillion by 2050 from $100 trillion now and inability of solar and wind energy to satisfy global electricity needs of the global economy on their own because of their intermittent nature?
ExxonMobil's forecast that crude demand will continue to be over 100 million barrels a day (mbd) through 2050 is closer to OPEC+'s which sees oil demand rising 116 mbd by 2045.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert