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BofA: Uptick in non-OPEC+ Oil Supply May Create Market Surplus in 2025

The oil market is bracing for a softer supply-demand balance, as highlighted in a recent report by BofA Global Research seen by RigZone. The report points to an uptick in non-OPEC+ oil production, particularly from Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and the United States, which is expected to grow by approximately one million barrels per day in 2024 and by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025. This increase comes as OPEC+ considers reintroducing additional barrels to the market later in the year, potentially adding to the surplus.

At the same time, global oil demand growth is showing signs of slowing, driven in part by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles, especially in markets like China. BofA's projections indicate that global oil demand will rise by around one million barrels per day in 2024 and by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025. These figures suggest that the market could see a surplus of 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, leading to a significant build-up in both commercial and strategic oil inventories, the report suggests.

The report also forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $86 per barrel in 2024 before declining to $80 per barrel in 2025, reflecting the anticipated softer market conditions.

Adding to the complex picture, recent data points to weaker demand from China, a key oil importer. China's crude oil imports from Russia dropped by 7.4% year-on-year in July, reaching their lowest level since September 2022. This decline is attributed to sluggish domestic fuel demand and slower economic growth, compounded by ongoing challenges in the Chinese property sector.

Bank of America executives told Bloomberg in March that the bank was looking to expand its business related to the energy transition, including boosting carbon trading and nat gas market trading.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group. More

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