It’s clear following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two-day visit to Azerbaijan that he wants to remain a powerbroker in the Caucasus. Whether he has the means to do so, however, remains an open question.
Putin’s August 18-19 trip to Baku occurred against a backdrop of the collapse in Russia’s strategic partnership with Armenia, the result of which has seen Yerevan enhance its political and security ties with the West, and an ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region. Despite this, Putin maintained a business-as-usual demeanor throughout his stay in Azerbaijan, mainly touting the economic benefits of a “Declaration of Alliance” signed between Russia and Azerbaijan in 2022, just days before the start of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine.
“Here we can talk not only about energy, but also about industrial cooperation, transport, logistics, light industry. We have many areas for joint work,” Putin told Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in prepared remarks made before a one-on-one meeting. Aliyev, meanwhile, pointed out Azerbaijan’s commitment to preserving and teaching the Russian language, saying more than 300 Russian schools in the country had over 160,000 students enrolled.
Aliyev went on to note Russia’s peacekeeping role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Given Russia’s strained relations with Armenia, a question on many minds during the visit was, can Moscow do anything to bring about a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan?
Putin certainly seems to want to give it a shot. At one point, he told Aliyev that he would “be happy” to facilitate efforts to delimit and demarcate the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, as well as broker the signing of a peace deal. He definitely doesn’t want to find himself, or Russia, on the sidelines of peace negotiations.
“Russia's historical involvement in the situation in the South Caucasus, even over the past few years, dictates a need for us to participate in these events [the peace process – of course, to the extent that it is required by the parties – this is without a doubt,” a statement issued by the Azerbaijani presidential press office quoted Putin as saying.
Armenian officials, who accuse Moscow of not fulfilling security guarantees during the Second Karabakh War, seem far from open to the idea of further Russian involvement in the peace process. On August 19, an Armenian Foreign Ministry representative accused Russian diplomats of making “clearly biased, often disrespectful comments” about Armenia, and questioned Russia’s commitment to fostering “constructive engagement” between Armenian and Azerbaijani officials.
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