Tensions Rise in the Horn of Africa

As tensions rock the Middle East, the Horn of Africa is following suit, with the New Year presenting a critical resurgence of Al Shabab, an Al-Qaida affiliate, helped along by geopolitics that strike at the very heart of Somalia’s territorial sovereignty. 

On the surface of the issue is a deal between Ethiopia and the autonomous region of Somaliland that will give landlocked Ethiopia the right to use the port of Somaliland, a region attempting to gain international recognition as a sovereign state and not part of Somalia. 

The Port of Berbera on the Gulf of Aden is on the coast of Somaliland, and it’s a lifeline of desperation for Ethiopia. The deal has enraged Somalia’s government, which has condemned the deal as illegal. The deal also comes on the heels of what Somali had thought was some sort of progress in talks with Somaliland less than a month ago.

Even if the Somali government doesn’t take some form of action directed at what amounts to Ethiopia’s declaration of Somaliland as a sovereign nation, radical Al Shabab will–and has, already. 

On Wednesday, Al Shabab attacked a UN helicopter after an emergency landing in Al Shabaab territory. Five passengers were taken hostage, one was killed while attempting to escape, and one is still missing.

The brazen Ethiopia-Somaliland deal represents the perfect opportunity for Al Shabab to launch attacks under the guise of the savior of Somalia’s sovereignty. What the radical group is looking for in its resurgence is a sense of legitimacy and political capital. And it could succeed by playing to the heartstrings of Somali nationalism, much like Maduro is doing in Venezuela over the threat to annex Guyana’s oil-rich Essequibo to gain domestic political capital. 

At the same time, Al Shabab’s actions will pressure the Somali president to act against Ethiopia/Somaliland to avoid appearing weak in the face of a threat to Somali sovereignty. It’s a dangerous cocktail of developments for the fragile stability of the Horn of Africa, just across the Red Sea from Yemen, where shipping is under constant threat of missile attack.  

The Somali president’s first call in this respect was to Eritrea, a long-time rival of Ethiopia. The stakes are high for everyone in this game, and all parties are willing to raise them to the highest levels, including the leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somaliland. 

This emerging conflict also goes beyond the Horn of Africa, and if there is a dealmaker lurking in the shadows, it is the UAE, which is investing heavily in the region because it wants to ensure its own maritime security. In this equation, the UAE has sizable investments in Ethiopia that have perhaps helped to embolden Addis Ababa to the extent that it took the plunge on the Somaliland port deal. 

In the meantime, the Houthis are no longer the only threat to the Red Sea. Al Shabab is potentially gearing up to cause trouble of its own.