When Sudan’s civil war broke out in April last year, markets stood by for a few weeks to see if the war would impact oil exports from Sudan, which has no real oil of its own but is the only export route for South Sudan’s oil.
When South Sudan’s oil remained unaffected, the markets looked away–and the Western media, too. The civil war was largely buried under the chaos of the Russian war in Ukraine and the Hamas-Israel conflict.
But it drones on, and for the first time since the conflict began, oil has been impacted. Sudan has declared force majeure on exports of South Sudan’s oil as a result of a pipeline rupture caused by civil war fighting.
How much oil does that impact? Around 150,000 barrels per day, though South Sudan, which declared independence from Sudan in 2011, taking the majority of the region’s oil with it, but leaving itself landlocked and unable to export without Sudan, could have the capacity to produce 350,000 bpd.
But the conflict in the Red Sea is also a threat to South Sudan’s oil because it’s not just dependent on the pipeline to Sudan and Sudan’s refineries, but it’s also dependent on the Port of Sudan to get it to market - and that port is on the Red Sea, where the Houthis continue their attacks.
In February, based on S&P Global Insights data, South Sudan’s exports from the Port of Sudan (Bashayer oil terminal) dropped to 79,000…
When Sudan’s civil war broke out in April last year, markets stood by for a few weeks to see if the war would impact oil exports from Sudan, which has no real oil of its own but is the only export route for South Sudan’s oil.
When South Sudan’s oil remained unaffected, the markets looked away–and the Western media, too. The civil war was largely buried under the chaos of the Russian war in Ukraine and the Hamas-Israel conflict.
But it drones on, and for the first time since the conflict began, oil has been impacted. Sudan has declared force majeure on exports of South Sudan’s oil as a result of a pipeline rupture caused by civil war fighting.
How much oil does that impact? Around 150,000 barrels per day, though South Sudan, which declared independence from Sudan in 2011, taking the majority of the region’s oil with it, but leaving itself landlocked and unable to export without Sudan, could have the capacity to produce 350,000 bpd.
But the conflict in the Red Sea is also a threat to South Sudan’s oil because it’s not just dependent on the pipeline to Sudan and Sudan’s refineries, but it’s also dependent on the Port of Sudan to get it to market - and that port is on the Red Sea, where the Houthis continue their attacks.
In February, based on S&P Global Insights data, South Sudan’s exports from the Port of Sudan (Bashayer oil terminal) dropped to 79,000 bpd.
If South Sudan’s oil exports remain blocked both on land and at sea for much longer, the civil war in Sudan could easily spread to South Sudan by igniting a major economic crisis for a fledgling country that is already lacking stability and relies almost entirely on oil revenues.
Even if Sudan manages to resolve its pipeline issues amid a raging civil war between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group, South Sudan’s oil will not be safe to traverse the Red Sea.
Attacks continue, unabated, with the most recent targeting an LPG tanker en route to Singapore from Saudi Arabia this week, as claimed by the Houthis.
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