There have been a number of recent research reports addressing the notion of 'Peak Car' - whether driving has peaked per person in the US. So here are a bunch of interesting tidbits and nuggets I have gleaned from the reports 'A New Direction' and 'Has Motorization in the US Peaked?', as well as an update on miles drivenâ¦.it's all downhill from here.
Pedal to the Metal
-From the end of World War II to 2004 (known as 'the Driving Boom'), Americans drove more miles nearly every year
-The driving boom coincided with the Baby Boom - a bubble of those born between 1946 and 1964
-By 2004, the average American was driving 85% more miles than in 1970
-Between 1980 and 2010, freeway capacity (measured in lane-miles) expanded by 35%
Hitting The Brakes
-The peak driving age group is that of 35-54 year-olds
-The total number of 35-54 year-olds is set to tail off by the end of this decade
-Meanwhile, the share of the population of those 65 and older is set to increase dramatically by 2040
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-In 1980, the age group of 65 and older made up 11% of the population. By 2040 this share is expected to reach 21%
-By 1992, 90% of the driving age population could drive, but by 2011 this had fallen to 86% - the lowest level in 30 years
-In 2011, 67% of 16-34 year-olds had a license, the lowest level since at last 1963
-Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices have doubled in the last decade
-Young people aged 16 -34 drove 23% fewer miles in 2009 than in 2001
-From 2001 - 2009, the number of passenger miles travelled by those aged 16-34 on public transport increased 40%
-Americans took nearly 10% more trips via public transportation in 2011 than in 2005
Driving It Home
-The absolute number of cars peaked in 2008, at 236.4 million
-This translates to nearly 2 vehicles per household, over 1 car per licensed driver, and 0.75 vehicles per person
-Although 'The Great Recession' is likely to blame for the drop-off in vehicles since 2008, a growing population (increasing 11% from 2011 to 2025) means we will likely see a higher number of vehicles on the road in the future.
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Conclusion
-Although we may not have peaked in terms of total vehicles in the US, we have likely peaked in terms of 'Peak Car' - aka miles driven per person
-Whether this slow-down is due to telecommuting, changing demographics, higher fuel costs, online shopping, or increased use of public transport, the evidence points to a turning tide in terms of miles driven:
Thanks for playing, and keep on truckingâ¦or don't, as the case may beâ¦
By. Matt Smith
Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01 More