Moscow has also warned it could cut production by up to 700,000 bpd as it responds to the $60/barrel price cap on its oil implemented by the G7 in December.
Another analyst, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, told Insider that global supplies will experience more tightness, leading oil prices to top $100 bpd this year, once Chinese demand improves.
"Following a soft first quarter, I see the price of Brent returning to a $90-100 dollar range. What happens later will depend on the strength of an incoming economic slowdown," Saxo told Insider.
Russia boasts the world's third-largest refining industry, and the EU ban that goes into effect on February 5 is expected to have a fairly significant impact.
According to Energy Intelligence, Russian refineries are already struggling with a labor shortage due to conscription for Putin's war on Ukraine. Energy Intel analysts expect to see a further decline in Russian refining margins this year as they pay more for tankers to export further, predicting a 600,000-bpd drop in refining throughput in 2023, year-on-year.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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